Episode 144: What’s the Outlook for the US Stock Market in 2020?

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"Episode 144: What’s the Outlook for the US Stock Market in 2020?"

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/pdfs/insights/podcasts/episodes/01-06-2020-david-kostin-f/transcript.pdf

"<p><span class=\"textBody02Regular\">The bull market in US equities will live to celebrate its 11th anniversary in 2020, according to David Kostin, Goldman Sachs Research’s chief US equity strategist. While questions surrounding the presidential election are likely to limit gains early in the year, Kostin sees the S&amp;P 500 rallying once the political uncertainty is lifted to end the year at 3,400. Core to his outlook is a forecast for corporate earnings to grow about 5 percent and for the multiple that investors are willing to pay for those earnings to hold steady. “The idea of the fundamentals is really critical in terms of discussions with clients,” Kostin says in the latest installment of the&nbsp;<i>Exchanges at Goldman Sachs</i>&nbsp;podcast. “Each portfolio manager with whom I speak has different assumptions, based both on their own political biases as well as their own forecast of what’s likely to take place based on polling data, etc. And so really the fundamentals come down to, ‘What is the likely path of profits, and how are we going to value those profits?’”</span></p>\r\n"

<p><span class="textBody02Regular">The bull market in US equities will live to celebrate its 11th anniversary in 2020, according to David Kostin, Goldman Sachs Research’s chief US equity strategist. While questions surrounding the presidential election are likely to limit gains early in the year, Kostin sees the S&amp;P 500 rallying once the political uncertainty is lifted to end the year at 3,400. Core to his outlook is a forecast for corporate earnings to grow about 5 percent and for the multiple that investors are willing to pay for those earnings to hold steady. “The idea of the fundamentals is really critical in terms of discussions with clients,” Kostin says in the latest installment of the&nbsp;<i>Exchanges at Goldman Sachs</i>&nbsp;podcast. “Each portfolio manager with whom I speak has different assumptions, based both on their own political biases as well as their own forecast of what’s likely to take place based on polling data, etc. And so really the fundamentals come down to, ‘What is the likely path of profits, and how are we going to value those profits?’”</span></p>


"<h4>&nbsp;</h4>\r\n<h4><span class=\"textBody04Regular\">This podcast was recorded on December 20, 2019 and January 2, 2020.<br>\r\n</span></h4>\r\n<h4><span class=\"textBody04Regular\">This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or in part. The information contained in this podcast is not financial research nor a product of Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.&nbsp; Neither Goldman Sachs nor any of its affiliates makes any representation or warranty, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or any information contained in this podcast and any liability therefore (including in respect of direct, indirect or consequential loss or damage) is expressly disclaimed. The views expressed in this podcast are not necessarily those of Goldman Sachs, and Goldman Sachs is not providing any financial, economic, legal, accounting or tax advice or recommendations in this podcast.&nbsp; In addition, the receipt of this podcast by any listener is not to be taken as constituting the giving of investment advice by Goldman Sachs to that listener, nor to constitute such person a client of any Goldman Sachs entity.</span></h4>\r\n"

<h4>&nbsp;</h4>
<h4><span class="textBody04Regular">This podcast was recorded on December 20, 2019 and January 2, 2020.<br>
</span></h4>
<h4><span class="textBody04Regular">This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or in part. The information contained in this podcast is not financial research nor a product of Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.&nbsp; Neither Goldman Sachs nor any of its affiliates makes any representation or warranty, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or any information contained in this podcast and any liability therefore (including in respect of direct, indirect or consequential loss or damage) is expressly disclaimed. The views expressed in this podcast are not necessarily those of Goldman Sachs, and Goldman Sachs is not providing any financial, economic, legal, accounting or tax advice or recommendations in this podcast.&nbsp; In addition, the receipt of this podcast by any listener is not to be taken as constituting the giving of investment advice by Goldman Sachs to that listener, nor to constitute such person a client of any Goldman Sachs entity.</span></h4>


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