The Idea Farm

🎙️ 𝗧𝗼𝗽 𝗜𝗻𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗣𝗼𝗱𝗰𝗮𝘀𝘁𝘀 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸 🎙️ Jeremy Schwartz with Jeremy Siegel, Samuel Rines, and Christopher Gannatti on the plot twist on bearish vibes https://lnkd.in/gVZYsDer Ted Seides with Ed Grefenstette on bold allocations at The Dietrich Foundation https://lnkd.in/gp_nPRmD

Great chartbook by Apollo Global Management, Inc. on the tariff response. 𝗛𝗼𝘄 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗳𝗶𝗿𝗺𝘀 𝗿𝗲𝘀𝗽𝗼𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗼 𝘁𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗳𝗳𝘀?  - Rapid downward revisions to earnings expectations - New orders falling, capex plans falling - Inventories rising before tariffs 𝗛𝗼𝘄 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘀𝘂𝗺𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗿𝗲𝘀𝗽𝗼𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗼 𝘁𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗳𝗳𝘀?  - Consumer confidence at record-low levels - Front-loading purchases before tariffs began - Tourism slowing, in particular international

🎙️ 𝗧𝗼𝗽 𝗜𝗻𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗣𝗼𝗱𝗰𝗮𝘀𝘁𝘀 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸 🎙️ Joe Lonsdale with Peter Thiel on DOGE, tariffs, building generational companies & the future of civilization https://lnkd.in/gkhginfh Willy Walker with Dr. Peter Linneman on the state of the economy https://lnkd.in/gWT43ZRV Patrick Ceresna, CMT DMS CIM and Kevin Muir with Peter Haynes on index pre-positioning https://lnkd.in/g4k3h6FW

What if you bought the largest 10 stocks in the S&P 500 since 1980 & held them for 1-10 years? While the absolute returns are solid, the relative returns are generally negative, as other faster-growing companies come along and outperform. via Goldman Sachs

🎙️ 𝗧𝗼𝗽 𝗜𝗻𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗣𝗼𝗱𝗰𝗮𝘀𝘁𝘀 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸 🎙️ Ted Seides with Alex Sacerdote on riding s-curves at Whale Rock https://lnkd.in/gUnBSaPd Matt Zeigler and Justin Carbonneau with Richard Bernstein on the market https://lnkd.in/g-vMZpxk Jack Farley with Lyn Alden on challenge America’s trade deficit, challenge the U.S. dollar https://lnkd.in/gaS3th4H

𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗧𝗮𝘆𝗹𝗼𝗿 𝗦𝘄𝗶𝗳𝘁 𝗘𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗼𝗺𝘆 💃 The developed economy consumers’ shift from buying goods to having fun creates distortions in economic data. The growing importance of mega events can increase consumer price indices—without necessarily increasing consumers’ cost of living. Tickets for a Taylor Swift concert will often sell for high prices—but that may not be recorded in consumer price data. Paul Donovan, Chief Economist of UBS Global Wealth Management, explains this dynamic.

𝗪𝗵𝘆 𝗣𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝗠𝗮𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗗𝘂𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗦𝘁𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘀 - Man Group 𝗞𝗲𝘆 𝗧𝗮𝗸𝗲𝗮𝘄𝗮𝘆𝘀: - In trend investing, patience is more than a virtue. History shows that holding your nerve during market crises can be financially rewarded. The ‘dot-com’ bust, the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the 2022 inflation episode all saw trend-following strategies lose before delivering substantial gains - Trend strategies often require time to adjust positioning and capitalise on emerging trends during market dislocations - Observing recurring patterns across crises can help investors adapt and generate ‘crisis alpha’ https://lnkd.in/eKd_h5cM