The Julia La Roche Show

Dr. Edward Altman, creator of the Z-Score bankruptcy prediction model and Max L. Heine Professor of Finance, Emeritus at the Stern School of Business, joins Julia La Roche on episode 257 for an in-depth discussion on where we are in the credit cycle.

Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals.

https://monetary-metals.com/julia

In this episode, Ed Altman discusses the current state of the credit cycle. Dr. Altman explains that 2024 saw more Chapter 11 bankruptcy filings than any year since the Great Financial Crisis, with over 7,000 filings. He analyzes why the economy has moved from a "benign" phase to a "stress" phase in his credit cycle framework, highlighting the dichotomy between high-yield bonds and bank loans, the impact of floating-rate debt, and the growth of private credit markets. Dr. Altman also examines distressed exchanges as alternatives to bankruptcy, government debt concerns, and why credit cycles typically precede business cycles as leading economic indicators.

Dr. Altman is a renowned professor and researcher for his bankruptcy prediction and credit risk analysis work. Dr. Altman earned his MBA and Ph.D. in Finance from the University of California, Los Angeles. He has been with NYU Stern School of Business since 1967. He is most famous for developing the Z-Score formula in the late 1960s. The Z-Score is a financial model that uses historical data to predict a company's likelihood of bankruptcy. This formula is widely used by investors, financial analysts, and auditors as a tool for predicting corporate defaults and an aid in credit risk management.

Dr. Altman has published numerous books and articles on the topics of bankruptcy, corporate distress analysis, corporate financial restructuring, and credit risk. His work has had a significant impact on both academic finance and practical investment analysis.

Links:

Wiser Funding: https://www.wiserfunding.com/

Corporate Financial Distress, Restructuring and Bankruptcy Book: https://www.amazon.com/Corporate-Financial-Distress-Restructuring-Bankruptcy/dp/1119481805/

NYU Stern: https://www.stern.nyu.edu/faculty/bio/edward-altman

00:00 - Introduction to Dr. Edward Altman

01:17 - The current credit cycle and economy outlook

03:17 - Credit market dichotomy between high yield bonds and bank loans

05:43 - Floating rate vs fixed rate debt performance

09:16 - Credit cycle as a leading indicator for the business cycle

15:21 - Record high Chapter 11 bankruptcies in 2024

19:06 - Understanding distressed exchanges as a default technique

26:58 - The Z-Score: history and evolution

33:49 - Changes in corporate debt markets over the decades

36:37 - Bond rating equivalents for Z-Scores

38:32 - Comparing current conditions to the 2007 credit bubble

45:19 - Private credit market growth and impact

51:38 - Government debt concerns and interest payments

59:59 - Closing thoughts on the credit cycle and market outlook

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist for QI Research, a research and analytics firm, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 256 for an FOMC day interview.

Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals.

https://monetary-metals.com/julia

DiMartino Booth argues that Fed monetary policy remains overly restrictive while the labor market is "anything but solid." She points to concerning indicators including record credit card minimum payments, rising long-term unemployment, and declining full-time jobs. DiMartino Booth makes the case for immediate rate cuts to a floor of 2%, warning the economy now operates "without a safety net" after successive waves of debt-fueled growth. Looking forward, she expresses concern about geopolitical risks while finding hope in the strong work ethic of the younger generation.

A global thought leader in monetary policy, economics, and finance, DiMartino Booth founded QI Research in 2015. She is the author of FED UP: An Insider’s Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America (Portfolio, Feb 2017), a business speaker, and a commentator frequently featured on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox News, Fox Business News, BNN Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance and other major media outlets. Prior to QI Research, DiMartino Booth spent nine years at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. She served as Advisor to President Richard W. Fisher throughout the financial crisis until his retirement in March 2015. Her work at the Fed focused on financial stability and the efficacy of unconventional monetary policy. DiMartino Booth began her career in New York at Credit Suisse and Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette where she worked in the fixed-income, public equity, and private equity markets. DiMartino Booth earned her BBA as a College of Business Scholar at the University of Texas at San Antonio. She holds an MBA in Finance and International Business from the University of Texas at Austin and an MS in Journalism from Columbia University.

Links:

QI Research: https://quillintelligence.com/subscriptions/

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth

Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/

Fed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655

Timestamps:

0:00 - Opening commentary on Powell and monetary policy

0:23 - Introduction and FOMC day discussion

1:39 - Arguments that monetary policy is too restrictive

2:49 - Labor market indicators and private sector layoffs

4:13 - Credit card minimum payments and student loan impacts

6:02 - Signs of financial stress in refinancing behaviors

8:10 - Bankruptcy trends and distressed debt exchanges

9:57 - Fed's dual mandate debate

12:05 - Critique of Powell's selective history on Fed actions

13:57 - Job market reality vs. Powell's "solid" characterization

15:48 - Self-employment and full-time job losses

17:50 - Sponsor segment

19:08 - Labor market "scarring" and long-term unemployment

21:12 - Federal debt approaching $38 trillion

22:03 - Analysis of long-term debt cycles since Greenspan

24:16 - Student loan wage garnishment concerns

28:36 - Fed rate cut recommendations

30:10 - Policy pushing money from real economy to financial assets

33:00 - Tariffs discussion - why they're deflationary not inflationary

36:38 - Real-world impacts of import costs

38:26 - What keeps Danielle up at night - geopolitical concerns

39:53 - What gives her hope - younger generation's work ethic

42:17 - Information about Qi Research and closing thoughts

In Episode 254 of The Julia La Roche Show, legendary economist Dr. Lacy Hunt, Chief Economist at Hoisington Investment Management, analyzes what he calls an economic "interregnum" where five convergent forces are aligning to depress growth. Dr. Hunt methodically explains how tariffs will ultimately prove deflationary rather than inflationary, why the Fed's restrictive monetary policy is misplaced, how federal spending cuts are creating headwinds, why massive debt overhang limits policy effectiveness, and how changing demographics will impact long-term prospects. With over 56 years of experience and historical perspective dating back to the 1920s, Dr. Hunt delivers a sobering but authoritative prediction that recession lies ahead in 2025, describing it as "a long, difficult slog" rather than a brief downturn.

Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals.

https://monetary-metals.com/julia

Dr. Hunt is an internationally known and award-winning economist. He received the Abramson Award from the National Association for Business Economics for "outstanding contributions in the field of business economics."  

Dr. Hunt is Executive Vice President and Chief Economist of Hoisington Investment Management Company (HIMCO).

This is the 56th year in Dr. Hunt's career. He served as a Senior Economist for the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. When he entered the Fed, William Martin was chair and was grappling with severe inflation and when Dr. Hunt left the Fed, Arthur Burns was chair and also trying to contain rampant price increases.  

Dr. Hunt served 23 years on the Board of Trustees at Temple University where he received his PhD in 1969, and is an honorary life trustee as well.

Timestamps:

0:00 - Introduction and welcome

1:16 - "Interregnum" explanation

1:28 - Tariffs discussion begins

2:08 - Economic boost from tariff announcements

2:49 - Consumer buying ahead of tariffs

3:42 - Employment impact of demand surge

4:26 - Inventory accumulation

5:03 - Federal spending decline (FY 2025)

6:18 - Economy in frail condition

7:05 - Beverage ratio analysis

7:45 - Average hourly earnings indicator

8:11 - April's wage growth weakness

9:30 - Late Easter timing challenges

10:31 - Recession prediction

10:58 - Five convergent economic factors

11:32 - Microeconomics of tariffs

12:55 - Price elasticity in international trade

14:31 - Historical context (1920s-1930s)

15:44 - French devaluation of 1925

17:43 - Smoot-Hawley tariff impact

19:45 - Chart explanation of M2 trend

21:03 - Tariffs' impact on money supply

22:15 - Monetary policy restrictiveness

22:51 - Fed's "data dependency" critique

25:31 - Other deposit liabilities explained

28:38 - Fed policy recommendations

29:37 - Tax cut potency limitations

31:16 - Fed's need for longer-term view

32:08 - Forward guidance discussion

33:22 - Asset reallocation issues

35:48 - Net national savings analysis

37:39 - Birth rate economic connections

39:46 - Immigration discussion

42:52 - Recession confirmation

43:49 - Historical economists on debt

44:37 - Interest expense approaching defense spending

46:18 - US debt impacts (125% of GDP)

48:30 - Gross vs. net debt explanation

49:48 - Fisher equation for bond yields

53:00 - Tariffs' deflationary nature

55:32 - High-tech sector growth analysis

56:38 - Aircraft sector growth unsustainability

57:11 - Federal spending outlook

1:00:03 - Need for tariff dispute resolution

1:01:18 - Closing remarks

Ted Oakley, Managing Partner and Founder of Oxbow Advisors, joins Julia La Roche on episode 253 to discuss the economy and markets.

Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals.

https://monetary-metals.com/julia

In this episode, Ted discusses the concerning deterioration in economic indicators despite ongoing investor complacency, warning that earnings expectations are too optimistic while market multiples remain elevated. He shares his approach to maintaining significant liquidity (currently 55%) while selectively investing in value opportunities like consumer staples. Ted also explains his gold strategy, with bullion as a permanent currency hedge and miners as tradable assets. The conversation concludes with insights from his new book "Second Generation Wealth," where he emphasizes the importance of letting children experience financial independence and adversity before introducing them to family wealth.

With more than forty years of experience in advising high-net-worth clients in the investment industry, Oakley implements the firm’s proprietary investment strategies and the “Oxbow Principles” to provide a unique investment perspective.

He is a frequent guest on FOX Business News, Bloomberg Radio, KITCO News, Cheddar TV, Yahoo Finance, and many more. Oakley is a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) and a Certified Financial Planner (CFP). He is a member of the Austin Society of Financial Analysts. He is also a Partner of Herndon Plant Oakley Ltd., an investment company. He is a Board Member of Texas State Aquarium, American Bank, and American Bank Holding Company. Mr. Oakley is a United States Army Veteran. Oakley began his career in Dallas, Texas, over 35 years ago. He is the author of nine books: You Sold Your Company, $20 Million and Broke, Rich Kids Broke Kids – The Failure of Traditional Estate Planning, Crazy Time – Surviving the First 12 Months after Selling Your Company, Wall Street Lies, Danger Time, My Story, The Psychology of Staying Rich, and Your Money Mentality. Oakley’s primary philanthropic interest is helping children. He is Chairman Emeritus and Founder of the Foster Angels of South Texas, the largest foster child foundation in South Texas, as well as Chairman Emeritus and Founder of Austin, Texas-based Foster Angels of Central Texas. Also, President and Founder of Advocates for Foster Children Foundation.

Links:

Oxbow Advisors: https://oxbowadvisors.com/

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@OxbowAdvisors

X: https://x.com/Oxbow_Advisors

Book: https://www.amazon.com/Second-Generation-Wealth-What-Want/dp/1966629168

Timestamps:

0:00 Introduction and welcome

0:32 Big picture macro view - deterioration and complacency

2:05 Explaining market complacency despite bearish sentiment

3:21 Liquidity and portfolio positioning

4:45 Appropriate liquidity levels by age group

7:42 Boomers' over-allocation to stocks

8:47 Value Line Investment Survey as a market indicator

10:52 Scaling into investments during market downturns

11:55 Fully invested vs. current 55% liquid strategy

14:09 Market risks: shrinking corporate margins and multiples

16:05 Market decline without recession possibility

17:05 Recent market movement - another chance for liquidity

18:35 Q1 GDP insights and market end-of-month action

19:48 Preparing for potential market scenarios

21:26 Retail buyers and leverage in current market recovery

22:35 Current investment opportunities - consumer staples and value

24:48 Gold strategy - bullion as currency hedge vs. miners as trades

27:45 Gold's purchasing power preservation over time

30:10 Treasury strategy - staying under two years to maintain control

31:36 US fiscal situation and future outlook

33:58 Second Generation Wealth - inheritance and teaching kids about money

36:17 Helping children develop self-esteem and independence

39:16 The importance of adversity and work ethic for children

41:37 Setting an example - treating everyone equally

44:13 Parting thoughts

Melody Wright joins Julia La Roche on episode 252 to discuss the state of the U.S. housing market.

Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals.

https://monetary-metals.com/julia

In this episode, Melody debunks the "inventory shortage" myth in housing and reveals startling truths about the current market. She explains how March home sales fell below 2008 levels despite population growth, discusses the hyperfinancialization of real estate through Wall Street and Airbnb investors, and shares insights from driving 10,000 miles across America to observe housing conditions firsthand. Melody also exposes ongoing defaults from the 2008 crisis and offers hope for frustrated millennial homebuyers waiting for affordability to return. Throughout our conversation, she provides a sobering look at what our distorted housing market reveals about the broader economy.

Links:

YouTube; https://www.youtube.com/@m3_melody

X: https://x.com/m3_melody

Substack: https://m3melody.substack.com/

Timestamps

0:00 Introduction and welcome Melody Wright

0:23 Setting up the big picture on housing and real estate

1:08 The context of the housing market's current state

3:18 Worst housing market in our lifetimes - March sales lower than 2008

4:18 Discussion of housing bubble and unaffordability

5:47 Hyperfinancialization of housing

6:15 Wall Street's role in housing after the GFC

7:32 The short-term rental craze and Airbnb saturation

9:03 How to see the real housing inventory numbers

11:06 Debunking the inventory myth and where the market is headed

12:58 FHA loan issues and foreclosure programs

15:07 Hope for millennial homebuyers

16:42 Advice for first-time homebuyers 18:08 What the housing market says about the economy

19:00 Commercial real estate situation and empty buildings

20:35 Insights from driving 10,000 miles across America

22:43 Unlearned lessons from the Global Financial Crisis

23:51 Ongoing defaults from the 2008 crisis

25:02 What a healthy housing market would look like

26:26 Closing thoughts

Darius Dale, founder & CEO of 42 Macro, an investment research firm that aims to disrupt the financial services industry by democratizing institutional-grade macro risk management frameworks and processes, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 251 to discuss Trump, tariffs, and the risks facing the markets and the economy.

Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals.

https://monetary-metals.com/julia

Links:

42 Macro https://42macro.com/

Darius on X/Twitter: https://x.com/dariusdale42

42 Macro on X/Twitter: https://x.com/42macro

42 Macro on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@42Macro

0:00 Intro and welcome Darius Dale

0:30 Quick update on Wednesday morning with Darius onTrump's Wall Street pivot

11:29 Original interview begins:

12:43 Core research themes: Sticky inflation and resilient economy

18:09 Treasury market dynamics and foreign ownership concerns

21:24 American exceptionalism and international investment imbalances

27:58 Discussion of technical recession outlook

31:24 Detailed recession forecast and Fed response predictions

33:38 Labor vs capital distribution shifts over generations

37:52 Balance of payments crisis risks and twin deficit implications

43:03 KISS systematic investment strategy explained

50:57 Gold outlook and bond market analysis

54:37 Closing thoughts

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist for QI Research, a research and analytics firm, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 250 where she reiterates her view that the US is already in recession, explains the "collapse in confidence" spreading through markets, and evaluates the growing tension between President Trump and Fed Chair Powell. Booth reveals concerning trends in consumer credit, employment data, and housing that mainstream statistics aren't capturing.

Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals.

https://monetary-metals.com/julia

A global thought leader in monetary policy, economics, and finance, DiMartino Booth founded QI Research in 2015. She is the author of FED UP: An Insider’s Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America (Portfolio, Feb 2017), a business speaker, and a commentator frequently featured on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox News, Fox Business News, BNN Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance and other major media outlets. Prior to QI Research, DiMartino Booth spent nine years at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. She served as Advisor to President Richard W. Fisher throughout the financial crisis until his retirement in March 2015. Her work at the Fed focused on financial stability and the efficacy of unconventional monetary policy. DiMartino Booth began her career in New York at Credit Suisse and Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette where she worked in the fixed-income, public equity, and private equity markets. DiMartino Booth earned her BBA as a College of Business Scholar at the University of Texas at San Antonio. She holds an MBA in Finance and International Business from the University of Texas at Austin and an MS in Journalism from Columbia University.

Links:

QI Research: https://quillintelligence.com/subscriptions/

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth

Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/

Fed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655

Timestamps:

00:00 - Introduction

03:31 - Discussion on US exceptionalism and capital migration out of US dollar assets

06:50 - Exploring the implications of collapsing confidence

08:35 - Trump's Truth Social post about Powell and interest rates

11:59 - Federal Reserve's independence and potential rate cut decisions

15:20 - Discussion on whether rate cuts are necessary and timing

16:02 - Explanation of Fed blackout period and limitations on communication

17:59 - Analysis of Trump's strategy regarding Fed commentary

19:17 - Consumer

22:20 - CEO confidence decline, reduced capital expenditures, and potential layoffs

23:47 - Discussion on high unemployment claim rejection rates (44%)

25:19 - Effects on gig economy and discretionary spending like rideshare services

27:03 - Confirmation that we are in a recession

31:34 - Housing market assessment and discussion of market conditions

34:05 - Housing price outlook and structural issues

36:00 - Closing thoughts

Legendary economist Dr. A. Gary Shilling, President of A. Gary Shilling & Co., an economic consulting firm and a registered investment advisor, joins Julia La Roche on episode 249 to discuss the state of the economy.

Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia

In this episode, Dr. Shilling explains why he believes we are headed for a recession, if not already in one. He analyzes how Trump's tariff policies are disrupting global trade relationships and creating economic uncertainty while simultaneously forcing countries like China to the negotiating table. Despite these headwinds, Dr. Shilling reveals why he remains bullish on US Treasuries and the dollar as safe havens, shares his optimistic outlook on Indian stocks over Chinese investments, and advises listeners to build "fortress-like balance sheets" to weather the coming economic storm.

Timestamps:

00:00 - Introduction and welcome back Dr. Shilling

01:50 - Historical context: US economic role since World War II

03:34 - Impact of globalization on US manufacturing

04:14 - Trump's changing approach to international trade

06:37 - China's position and recent willingness to negotiate

09:03 - Signs of recession and economic vulnerabilities

12:33 - Bond market volatility and US Treasury outlook

17:18 - Perspective on gold reaching record highs

19:11 - Current investment allocations and strategies

20:21 - Why India may surpass China in global leadership

24:19 - Media coverage of market fluctuations vs long-term outlook

26:47 - Dr. Shilling's history of contrarian economic predictions

29:56 - Assessment of current economic vulnerabilities

32:04 - Consumer debt and "buy now, pay later" trends

33:27 - The US debt bomb and dollar's reserve currency status

36:52 - Potential outcomes of tariff policies

39:43 - Contact information and subscription details

40:42 - Closing advice: maintaining a "fortress-like balance sheet"

Access Dr. Shilling's monthly newsletter INSIGHT by calling this toll free number (1-888-346-7444) or visiting his website (https://www.agaryshilling.com/).

New York Times’ bestselling author Larry McDonald, founder of The Bear Traps Report, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for an in-person episode to discuss the markets and the economy.

Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia

In this episode, McDonald discusses capital flows moving away from US markets. McDonald explains how European investors are pulling back following tariff policies and growing deficits. He discusses why copper, uranium, and oil services present value opportunities while predicting the possibility of "4000 gold and 4000 S&P." McDonald warns that America faces conditions with weakness in stocks, bonds, and currency simultaneously, creating what he calls a potential "Lehman moment" of uncertainty.

Links:

How To Listen When Markets Speak: https://www.amazon.com/Listen-When-Markets-Speak-Opportunities-ebook/dp/B0C4DFVFNR

Twitter/X: https://x.com/convertbond

Bear Traps Report: https://www.thebeartrapsreport.com/

00:00 - Introduction and welcome Larry 02:26 - Institutional investor conversations and European capital flows05:00 - American exceptionalism and crowded US investments08:24 - Understanding Wall Street research and consensus thinking10:27 - The new investing era: Niall Ferguson's insights on multi-polar world11:55 - The coming copper crisis and investment opportunity17:12 - Gold as a stable store of value compared to Bitcoin20:00 - Uranium market opportunities and tourist investors21:44 - S&P earnings projections and market indicators24:18 - Value stock opportunities in a changing market26:10 - NASDAQ vs energy stocks: the massive valuation gap28:42 - Trump's tariff policy and its global investment impact32:21 - Tariffs as both regressive tax and tax on consumption35:00 - Tariff policy creating Lehman-like uncertainty39:14 - The "emerging market" problem facing the US40:00 - Closing thoughts on democratizing financial information

Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 247 to discuss tariffs, markets, and the economy.

Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. ⁠https://monetary-metals.com/julia⁠

Chris Whalen explains why the tariff debate is largely a distraction - part of Trump's "shock and awe" strategy to force trading partners to negotiate fairer terms as America attempts to end the Bretton Woods system after 75 years. He sees credit deterioration emerging in auto loans and credit cards while warning about multi-family housing defaults, particularly in smaller urban properties where market indicators show values 50% below their last sale. Despite market fears, Whalen believes the bond market is already cutting rates regardless of Fed action, with the 10-year yield dropping to 3.94% due to strong demand for risk-free collateral and Treasury's efforts to reduce auction sizes. He predicts financial consolidation will continue, pointing to the mortgage industry shrinking to just five major lender/servicer groups, while suggesting investors should look for stock opportunities despite current volatility.

Links:

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen

Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/

The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/

Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.amazon.com/Inflated-Money-Debt-American-Dream/dp/139428571X

Stanley Middleman book: https://www.amazon.com/Seeing-Around-Corners-Achieving-Business/dp/B0D5PTSJVC/

0:00 Introduction1:27 Tariffs 3:03 Market reaction assessment5:11 Investment strategy amid volatility7:40 Historical context of tariffs10:37 Main Street vs Wall Street priorities11:17 Impact and distribution of tariff costs13:30 Consumer credit and lending trends15:34 Multi-family housing defaults17:36 Real estate overbuilding concerns18:17 Consumer recession outlook20:46 Job market and recession dynamics22:57 Fed outlook and rate environment24:52 Balance sheet impact discussion26:56 Treasury market outlook29:36 Client questions about market positioning30:57 Closing remarks and contact information

Jim Rickards returns to The Julia La Roche Show to discuss "MAGAnomics" - the multi-faceted economic strategy of the Trump administration. Rickards explains the three-legged stool of Trump's economic policy: Bessent's 3-3-3 Plan, Navarro's tariff strategy, and Miran's "Mar-a-Lago Accord." He warns of a potential "time bomb" in the financial system if Treasury Bills are swapped for 100-year bonds, discusses why central banks are racing to buy gold, and explains why the current gold rally is "just getting started." Rickards also shares his market outlook, predicting continued market decline and potential recession before long-term economic gains can be realized.

This episode is sponsored by Monetary Metals. Visit monetary-metals.com/julia

More about Rickards: Rickards is a New York Times bestselling author of Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis and several other best-sellers, including The New Great Depression, Aftermath, The Road to Ruin, Death of Money, The New Case for Gold, and his newest book Sold Out: How Broken Supply Chains, Surging Inflation, and Political Instability Will Sink the Global Economy. An investment advisor, lawyer, inventor, and economist, Rickards has held senior positions at Citibank, Long-Term Capital Management, and Caxton Associates. He is also the Editor of Strategic Intelligence, a widely-read financial newsletter. Links: https://www.amazon.com/MoneyGPT-AI-Threat-Global-Economy/dp/0593718631http://www.jamesrickardsproject.com/ https://x.com/realjimrickards

0:00 - Intro and welcome Jim Rickards

1:04 - Big picture

3:01 - Tariff strategies and market impact

4:49 - Auto industry specifics and tariff implications

6:50 - Discussion on economic principles and strategies

11:05 - Geopolitical impacts of oil pricing

13:17 - How tariffs work in practice

15:27 - Benefits of tariffs and job creation in the US

16:50 - Economic agreements and strategies

27:11 - Treasury strategies and fiscal policies

30:07 - Federal land resources and economic opportunities

31:27 - U.S. financial stability and government strategies

33:26 - Dynamics of U.S. Treasury securities

35:34 - Importance of Treasury bills in global finance

38:32 - Necessity of short-term Treasury bills

39:58 - Discussion on U.S. dollar and trade policies

42:37 - Globalization and economic policies

44:02 - Assessment of current economic moves

45:25 - Gold market dynamics and central bank activities

48:49 - Geopolitical strategy using economic tools

51:13 - Global gold demand and production

53:45 - Market psychology and gold pricing

54:15 - Future prospects of gold market

55:10 - Economic forecasts and stock market trends

58:05 - Interest rate policies and economic implications

59:38 - Final thoughts and where to find Jim Rickards' work

Axel Merk, CIO and founder of Merk Investments with over $2 billion in AUM, shares his perspective on the current macro landscape. He explores how Trump's executive policies around trade and tariffs might alter the "plumbing" of the global financial system, potentially disrupting international capital flows that have long benefited the US. Merk discusses gold's performance as a possible warning signal, stagflationary risks in the economy, and why there is "no such thing as a safe asset" in today's investment environment. With 30 years of investment experience, he provides analysis on monetary policy, inflation concerns, and portfolio diversification strategies for navigating these uncertain times.

This episode is sponsored by Monetary Metals. Visit https://monetary-metals.com/julia

Timestamps

0:00 Intro and welcome Axel Merk1:11 The big macro picture - viewing through executive policy3:34 Disruption to global financial flows4:30 Potential consequences of changing financial plumbing6:51 Role of the Federal Reserve in market disruptions8:25 What the market gets right and wrong10:26 Gold as a contrarian indicator11:57 Drivers behind gold's performance14:54 Axel's position on gold investments16:00 Investment advice for different types of investors19:12 The "popcorn" investment strategy20:31 Stagflationary risks remain22:05 Growth potential amid regulatory changes24:53 Managing investment risks in volatile times27:47 Long-term debt and entitlement concerns30:46 Global reflation efforts vs US fiscal contraction31:42 Where to find Axel Merk and final thoughts

Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, joins Julia La Roche for episode 231 where he shares his perspective on the economic and market implications of President Trump's pivot back to 19th century-style tariffs. Whalen argues that while tariffs are unlikely to significantly slow the US economy, the Fed is "playing chicken" with liquidity levels as it unwinds its balance sheet amid soaring deficits. He warns of structural issues in the mortgage market stemming from pandemic-era policies, and expects a major housing reset in 2027-28. Whalen also discusses the Treasury's funding challenges, the Trump administration's likely tax policy priorities, risks lurking beneath buoyant markets, and the limits of mixed economic data for asset allocators. Tune in for an incisive discussion on navigating an increasingly uncertain investing landscape.

Links:    

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    

Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/    

The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/   

Stanley Middleman book: https://www.amazon.com/Seeing-Around-Corners-Achieving-Business/dp/B0D5PTSJVC/  

Timestamps:

00:00 Introduction

01:06 Trump taking us back to the 19th century with tariffs

03:14 Tariffs unlikely to slow down the US economy much

04:57 Fed erring on side of liquidity due to federal deficit, hasn't reduced reserves

06:27 Fed playing "chicken" with liquidity levels in the economy

08:03 Politics making Fed governors protective and reluctant to cut rates

09:45 Treasury's ebb and flow of cash and Fed's balance sheet runoff impacting liquidity

12:36 Fed's difficulty in determining minimum liquidity levels

13:43 Treasury Secretary Bessent inheriting Yellen's reliance on short-term T-bills

15:42 Appetite for longer-dated Treasuries depends on the coupon

17:49 Structural impediments in the mortgage market from QE during COVID

18:19 Taxes to be a big focus for Trump administration

19:51 Danger of relying on long-dated Treasury issuance to finance deficits

21:11 Strong liquidity masking underlying economic issues

22:44 Inflation likely here to stay given high debt levels

24:14 Expecting Fed rate cuts, mini boom, then major housing reset in 2027-28

25:55 Treasury Secretary Bessent named acting head of CFPB after firing Chopra

27:13 Stock market valuations stretched, risks from passive strategies selling

29:54 Trump likened to a disruptive Andrew Jackson, investors may seek safety

31:48 Mixed economic data making asset allocation challenging

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist for QI Research, a research and analytics firm, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 230 for an in-person Fed day analysis following the January FOMC meeting. She breaks down Powell's press conference, newly released 2019 Fed transcripts, and signals of labor market weakness that official numbers might miss. DiMartino Booth explains why the Fed's shift to market-based inflation metrics could accelerate rate cuts, while warning about mounting evidence of job market deterioration hidden beneath headline numbers.

A global thought leader in monetary policy, economics, and finance, DiMartino Booth founded QI Research in 2015. She is the author of FED UP: An Insider’s Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America (Portfolio, Feb 2017), a business speaker, and a commentator frequently featured on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox News, Fox Business News, BNN Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance and other major media outlets.  Prior to QI Research, DiMartino Booth spent nine years at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. She served as Advisor to President Richard W. Fisher throughout the financial crisis until his retirement in March 2015. Her work at the Fed focused on financial stability and the efficacy of unconventional monetary policy.

DiMartino Booth began her career in New York at Credit Suisse and Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette where she worked in the fixed-income, public equity, and private equity markets. DiMartino Booth earned her BBA as a College of Business Scholar at the University of Texas at San Antonio. She holds an MBA in Finance and International Business from the University of Texas at Austin and an MS in Journalism from Columbia University.

Links:  

QI Research: https://quillintelligence.com/subscriptions/

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth

Fed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655

Timestamps:

0:00 Opening discussion on disinflationary pressures 1:09 Analysis of 2019 Fed transcripts and global trade impact 3:13 Discussion of Conference Board data and labor market signals 8:56 Analysis of rental market dynamics and Fed's new inflation metrics 17:36 Housing market analysis and renter dynamics 18:28 Impact of tariffs on economy and growth 21:54 Release timing of Fed transcripts and messaging 23:16 Current state of economy and job market analysis 28:54 Federal employee buyouts and workforce implications 34:11 Evolution of layoff reporting and gig economy impact 38:54 Discussion of fiscal policy mechanisms and inflation 41:30 Analysis of potential government efficiency measures 47:00 AI impact on markets and tech valuations 50:57 Societal shifts in spending habits and debt management 54:22 Closing remarks and where to find her work

Macro trends blogger and economist David Woo, CEO of David Woo Unbound, joins Julia La Roche on episode 228 in a two-part interview. On Monday, he rejoined to provide analysis on China's DeepSeek AI breakthrough and the massive macro implications. On Friday, he provided a deep dive into Trump's second term strategy and the global chess moves, from US-China negotiations to the crucial role of Mexico in border security.

In Part 1, Woo discusses how DeepSeek's AI model from China has impacted markets, with the NASDAQ down 3% and Nvidia dropping over 16%. He examines how this development challenges US tech monopolies' dominance and what this means for US economic exceptionalism and tech sector valuations.

In Part 2, Woo analyzes the challenges facing Trump's second term, particularly regarding fiscal policy and the extension of the 2017 tax cuts. He highlights the critical role of the Freedom Caucus, which holds significant power with Republicans' one-seat majority in the House. The discussion covers several key areas:

Links:

Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@DavidWooUnbound

Website: https://www.davidwoounbound.com/

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/Davidwoounbound

Part 1: DeepSeek Discussion

0:00 Intro with David Woo 1:02 DeepSeek's impact on markets and US tech dominance 3:13 Analysis of US market capitalization growth 5:47 Discussion of US tech monopolies and cloud computing 7:14 DeepSeek's challenge to US AI dominance 9:09 Market reaction to DeepSeek's test results 11:15 Impact on technology monetization 12:17 Conclusion

Part 2

12:30 Introduction 13:21 Trump administration challenges 21:21 Freedom Caucus and fiscal policy 34:25 Trump's foreign policy approach 36:49 TikTok situation analysis 41:44 US-China trade relations 43:40 Trump's 2017 China visit story 46:03 Chinese market investment outlook 49:10 Mexico vs Canada analysis 56:10 US Treasury market outlook 59:13 Closing thoughts

Ted Oakley, Managing Partner and Founder of Oxbow Advisors, joins Julia La Roche on episode 226 to share his perspective on the biggest challenges facing investors in 2025. Oakley discusses the potential collision between high government debt levels and rising interest rates. He expresses concerns about the new administration's economic plans sparking inflation, and the difficulties in refinancing government debt given budget shortfalls. Oakley also shares his market outlook, highlighting risks around investor complacency, the popularity of passive investing, and the importance of maintaining liquidity. He provides insights from his decades of investing experience, including how he navigated previous turbulent markets. Oakley also previews his upcoming book on generational wealth and the lessons learned from his own upbringing.

With more than forty years of experience in advising high-net-worth clients in the investment industry, Oakley implements the firm’s proprietary investment strategies and the “Oxbow Principles” to provide a unique investment perspective.

He is a frequent guest on FOX Business News, Bloomberg Radio, KITCO News, Cheddar TV, Yahoo Finance, and many more. Oakley is a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) and a Certified Financial Planner (CFP). He is a member of the Austin Society of Financial Analysts. He is also a Partner of Herndon Plant Oakley Ltd., an investment company. He is a Board Member of Texas State Aquarium, American Bank, and American Bank Holding Company. Mr. Oakley is a United States Army Veteran. Oakley began his career in Dallas, Texas, over 35 years ago. He is the author of nine books: You Sold Your Company, $20 Million and Broke, Rich Kids Broke Kids – The Failure of Traditional Estate Planning, Crazy Time – Surviving the First 12 Months after Selling Your Company, Wall Street Lies, Danger Time, My Story, The Psychology of Staying Rich, and Your Money Mentality. Oakley’s primary philanthropic interest is helping children. He is Chairman Emeritus and Founder of the Foster Angels of South Texas, the largest foster child foundation in South Texas, as well as Chairman Emeritus and Founder of Austin, Texas-based Foster Angels of Central Texas. Also, President and Founder of Advocates for Foster Children Foundation.

00:00 Introduction and welcome 01:52 Macro outlook: debt vs interest rates 04:42 Inflation concerns with new administration
06:30 Challenges refinancing government debt 09:17 Markets driven by rumors over fundamentals 11:12 Government's economic impact; recession risks 15:54 Oakley's past performance in turbulent markets 19:11 Risks of passive investing given demographics 22:05 Market complacency and emotional investing 25:23 Finding value in stable dividend stocks 28:04 Views on Bitcoin as speculation 31:47 Fed's interest rate dilemma 34:12 Potential paths out of US debt problem 37:29 Recession risks from spending cuts 39:16 Maintaining high liquidity given risks 42:10 Upcoming book on generational wealth 46:40 Instilling work ethic despite wealth 49:41 Closing thoughts on balance and liquidity

Marc Faber, editor and publisher of The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, joins the Julia La Roche Show to break down why he believes asset inflation is coming to an end while consumer price inflation accelerates. He explains why 70% of households are struggling despite government statistics showing growth, critiques Federal Reserve policies that favor Wall Street over Main Street, and shares his framework for portfolio allocation across real estate, stocks, bonds, and precious metals. Faber also provides a tour of his rare book and communist memorabilia collection in his office while sharing thoughts on capitalism, society, and his newest motorcycle. Timestamps: 00:00 Welcome to Marc Faber 00:57 Macro overview and government statistics 02:52 Fed policy favoring the wealthy 04:41 Political shifts in Europe and Argentina 06:09 Market outlook and policy implications 08:57 US indices topping out analysis 11:12 Value opportunities in Asian markets 13:37 Gold price history and precious metals 14:35 Bond market size discussion 16:37 Monetary inflation distortions 19:56 Debt spiral and hyperinflation risks 21:21 Insurance and property discussion 23:02 Government role in economy 26:00 Trust and capitalism discussion 28:01 Trump administration outlook 32:00 Real economy recession analysis 34:35 Asset vs consumer price inflation 40:04 Bureau of Labor Statistics critique 42:49 End of asset inflation thesis 44:35 Cost of living increases examples 47:24 Portfolio allocation framework 49:55 Communist memorabilia collection 54:21 Closing thoughts Links: The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report: https://www.gloomboomdoom.com

George Goncalves, head of U.S. macro strategy at MUFG, joins the Julia La Roche Show to discuss why 2025 will be a "balancing act" as markets transition from record highs to new economic realities. In this wide-ranging conversation, Goncalves explains why the Trump administration faces a critical choice between taking "short-term pain for long-term gain" early in the term or continuing fiscal largesse, analyzes why the 10-year yield breaking above 4.75% could trigger market turbulence, and breaks down why the Federal Reserve needs to keep cutting rates to avoid a recession in the second half of the year.

Links:

https://x.com/bondstrategist

Timestamps:

00:00 Welcome to George Goncalves

01:17 Background and macro framework

03:15 2025 as a "balancing act"

05:35 Market complacency and valuations

07:19 Short-term pain for long-term gain

09:43 Business vs. government-led growth

11:01 Different starting points from Trump 1.0

13:38 Economy propped up by fiscal spending

16:21 Interest rates and fiscal policy

17:14 Bond market dynamics explanation

21:43 Credit market implications

23:26 Soft landing analysis

28:01 Market euphoria and transition risks

29:41 Deficit and debt analysis

33:05 Scott Bessent's 3-3-3 plan analysis

34:40 Fed policy outlook for 2025

39:15 Closing thoughts on dollar and oil

Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst, joins Episode 223 of the Julia La Roche Show for his first outlook of 2025. Whalen explains why he believes long-term interest rates could rise unless Trump makes "real progress" on the federal deficit, warns a "kamikaze release" of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac from conservatorship without legislation would be highly disruptive, and shares why focusing on Treasury policy rather than the Federal Reserve is "all that matters." He also discusses why stocks could be "ready for a downward adjustment" after outperforming in 2023-2024, and offers a surprisingly optimistic longer-term view if Washington can demonstrate "real leadership."

Links:    

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    

Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/    

The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/   

Stanley Middleman book: https://www.amazon.com/Seeing-Around-Corners-Achieving-Business/dp/B0D5PTSJVC/  

Timestamps:

00:00 Welcome back to Chris Whalen

01:12 2024 retrospective and consumer spending

02:42 Housing affordability and discretionary spending

04:49 Inflation outlook and Fed policy

06:31 Fed's focus on market stability over inflation

08:16 Fed rate cuts projection for 2025

10:52 Trump administration 2.0 outlook

11:42 Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac conservatorship discussion

13:21 Recession probability assessment

15:25 GSE release implications

19:45 Best approach to GSE reform

21:47 Federal deficit challenges

23:38 US debt situation and spending freeze

25:49 Treasury debt issuance strategy

27:42 Shifting narrative from Fed to Treasury

28:36 Market outlook for 2025

30:50 Closing thoughts on leadership and demographics

Luke Gromen, founder of FFTT, joins Episode 222 of the Julia La Roche Show to discuss why he believes the Department of Defense, not the Federal Reserve, now drives U.S. economic policy. Gromen warns that if the incoming Trump administration attempts efficiency cuts (DOGE) before devaluing the dollar, "they will fail spectacularly" and "what happened in '08 will look like a tea party." He explains why rebuilding America's hollowed-out defense industrial base requires significant spending that can't be constrained by bond market concerns, shares his portfolio strategy favoring gold, Bitcoin, and T-bills over long-term bonds, and explores how a strategic Bitcoin reserve could help rebalance global trade.

This episode was recorded on Dec. 16.

Links:

website: https://fftt-llc.com/

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/lukegromen

00:01 Introduction and welcome Luke Gromen

00:47 Two key themes for 2025

03:12 DOD driving economic decisions, not Fed/Treasury

04:58 Bond market dynamics and military spending

07:25 Defense industrial base concerns

09:16 Historical parallels to WWII financing

12:07 Currency as release valve

14:01 Impact on equities, Bitcoin, gold

16:04 Foreign vs. domestic bondholders

21:06 U.S. debt situation

24:03 Healthcare and entitlement challenges

31:10 Social Security reform mathematics 35:42 Historical dollar devaluations

41:10 DOGE and order of operations

44:15 Optimism about dollar devaluation

47:04 Portfolio allocation strategy

56:09 Strategic Bitcoin reserve discussion

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and chief strategist of QI Research and former Federal Reserve insider, joins the Julia La Roche Show for an in-person interview to discuss why she sees "frayed nerves" at the Federal Reserve about the incoming Trump administration. In this wide-ranging conversation, DiMartino Booth reveals why 18 months of downward revisions to jobs data is "statistically impossible," explains how bureaucrats could start "releasing the Kraken" with true economic data that gets "pinned on Trump," and warns about the explosion of buy-now-pay-later debt that's not showing up in official credit statistics. She also shares a powerful message about the growing divide between Wall Street and Main Street

A global thought leader in monetary policy, economics, and finance, DiMartino Booth founded QI Research in 2015. She is the author of FED UP: An Insider’s Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America (Portfolio, Feb 2017), a business speaker, and a commentator frequently featured on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox News, Fox Business News, BNN Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance and other major media outlets.  Prior to QI Research, DiMartino Booth spent nine years at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. She served as Advisor to President Richard W. Fisher throughout the financial crisis until his retirement in March 2015. Her work at the Fed focused on financial stability and the efficacy of unconventional monetary policy.

DiMartino Booth began her career in New York at Credit Suisse and Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette where she worked in the fixed-income, public equity, and private equity markets. DiMartino Booth earned her BBA as a College of Business Scholar at the University of Texas at San Antonio. She holds an MBA in Finance and International Business from the University of Texas at Austin and an MS in Journalism from Columbia University.

Links:  

QI Research: https://quillintelligence.com/subscriptions/

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth

Fed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655

Timestamps:

00:00 Welcome Danielle

01:00 Reaction to the FOMC, frayed nerves at the Fed

3:08 Fed spooked by inflation

3:45 Fed went in opposite direction of staff presentations

6:30 10-Year

8:03 A "closer call"

9:12 Does the Fed make policy for the public good?

13:00 Nihilism among younger generations

16:30 The government is buying the economy time, and the Fed is making the wealthier wealthier  

18:48 Are we in a recession?

22:00 Declining consumption is not a prerequisite to recession

24:10 Could Trump inherit a recession?

26:30 Jobs numbers

30:00 Story behind the data

31:20 Trump administration 2.0

37:45 Stock market

39:50 What's keeping Danielle up at night

42:11 Parting thoughts

Former hedge fund manager Felix Zulauf, founder and president of Zulauf Consulting, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 220 for his annual outlook interview to discuss why U.S. stocks are in a bubble and what could break it. In this wide-ranging conversation, Zulauf explains why watching the Japanese yen is critical for understanding when global liquidity might dry up, warns that AI stocks could fall 50-70% when the bubble bursts, and shares his view that 2025 will be a "mini version" of the decade's roller coaster ride for markets. He also discusses why Trump's proposed tariffs could create significant economic headwinds, explores why Europe and China face structural challenges, and outlines his targets for Bitcoin ($115,000-$130,000) before a potential 80% correction.

https://www.felixzulauf.com/

0:00 Welcome back Felix Zulauf

00:50 Macro picture

03:47 China's structural challenges

06:14 Germany and Europe's structural malaise

09:36 US labor market dynamics

12:46 Impact of government spending cuts and tariffs

16:30 US stock market bubble discussion

21:14 Global liquidity and Japanese yen dynamics

25:14 Market bubble indicators and timing

28:39 Decennial pattern analysis

32:36 Discussion of inflation dynamics

36:36 Bond market paradigm shift

41:20 Commodity sector leadership outlook

45:21 Trade war risks and historical parallels

48:56 Gold and Bitcoin outlook

51:20 Financial system stability concerns

https://www.felixzulauf.com/

Professor Campbell Harvey, professor of finance at the Fuqua School of Business at Duke University and the inventor of the most famous recession indicator — the inverted yield curve — returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 219 to discuss the state of the economy, the yield curve, and what's ahead for U.S. growth.

Links:  

DeFI and the Future of Finance: https://www.amazon.com/DeFi-Future-Finance-Campbell-Harvey/dp/1119836018 https://www.fuqua.duke.edu/faculty/campbell-harvey https://people.duke.edu/~charvey/ https://twitter.com/camharvey

Timestamps:

00:02 Introduction to Professor Campbell Harvey

00:51 BlackRock's "end of boom-bust cycle" thesis

04:15 Historical perspective on market cycles

06:14 Impact of wealthy consumers on economy

07:13 Role of technological innovation

11:37 U.S. leadership in innovation

14:31 Growth prospects and productivity potential

16:09 Post-election growth outlook

24:56 U.S. debt and deficit challenges

28:16 Social Security sustainability issues

32:51 Inverted yield curve indicator discussion

40:11 Impact of technological innovations

45:21 Federal Reserve policy critique

50:20 Distortions from Fed's zero-rate policy

54:18 Future consequences of Fed decisions

59:40 Closing thoughts on U.S. prospects

James Lavish, reformed hedge-fund manager and co-managing partner of the Bitcoin Opportunity Fund and author of The Informationist newsletter, joined Episode 218 of the Julia La Roche Show as Bitcoin crossed the historic $100,000 milestone.

Lavish provides a comprehensive analysis of the current macro environment, explores why "all roads lead to inflation," breaks down MicroStrategy's Bitcoin strategy, and shares his outlook on institutional adoption of cryptocurrencies. He also discusses the widening wealth gap in America and examines the challenges facing the Department of Government Efficiency's ambitious spending cut goals.

Links:

Twitter/X: https://x.com/jameslavish

The Informationist: https://jameslavish.substack.com/

The Bitcoin Opportunity Fund: https://www.bitcoinopportunity.fund/

Timestamps:

00:00 Introduction and welcome James Lavish

00:45 Post-election market overview

02:34 Fed policy and bond market reaction

04:56 Labor market and unemployment analysis

06:40 Discussion of economic soft spots

09:27 Wealth inequality and Cantillon effect

12:16 Federal Reserve's policy options

15:05 Understanding unemployment metrics

18:41 Debt and deficit discussion

24:19 Department of Government Efficiency analysis

29:34 Bitcoin breaking $100K milestone

33:24 Bitcoin ETF impact and institutional adoption

38:36 Bitcoin catalysts and outlook

44:18 MicroStrategy's Bitcoin strategy explained

51:13 Corporate Bitcoin adoption outlook

55:18 Closing thoughts and investment approach

Anthony Scaramucci, managing partner of SkyBridge Capital, joins Julia La Roche on Episode 217 to discuss his new book "The Little Book of Bitcoin." He shares his journey from his 11-day tenure as White House Communications Director to SkyBridge Capital's bold entry into cryptocurrency that nearly led to the firm's collapse. Scaramucci offers insights on failure, risk-taking, and explains why he believes Bitcoin's value will increase tenfold from today's price.

Links:

https://x.com/scaramucci

https://www.amazon.com/Little-Book-Bitcoin-Already-Figured/dp/1394286643

0:00 Welcome Anthony Scaramucci

01:50 Scaramucci on Trump

04:00 Politics

05:00 Impact on relationship

06:23 Take risks and fail

08:37 How bad did it get economically?

10:29 Doing nothing is sometimes the best thing to do, but it's very hard on Wall Street

12:20 Island of Elba observation

14:15 Getting fired from the White House

17:55 Macro picture

25:00 Skybridge taking a massive risk in 2020, going in on Bitcoin

32:00 Raising money again, buying Bitcoin still

33:57 Said Bitcoin was going to $100K at the end of 2022

36:13 Trump and Bitcoin

39:17 Michael Saylor

43:16 Bitcoin existing as part of Wall Street

50:00 If I'm right, it's going to be worth 10x where it is today, $150K-$300K next 3-5 years

53:11 Why Gary Gensler helped the crypto industry

55:30 Parting thoughts

Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst, joined the Julia La Roche Show (Ep. 216) to share his outlook on markets amid the transition to a new Trump administration. Whalen explains why the markets want to see seriousness about deficit reduction from the incoming administration, discusses his views on Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary pick, and outlines why showing progress on the deficit could drive rates lower without Fed intervention. He also delves into the future of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the return of bond vigilantes, and why Bitcoin's rise is his favorite inflation indicator.

Links:    

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    

Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/    

The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/   

Stanley Middleman book: https://www.amazon.com/Seeing-Around-Corners-Achieving-Business/dp/B0D5PTSJVC/  

Timestamps:

**Timestamps:**

00:01 Introduction to Chris Whalen

00:54 Post-election cabinet picks and macro overview

03:16 Analysis of Treasury Secretary pick Scott Bessent

05:04 Discussion of Treasury debt and market implications

06:14 Treasury priorities and impact on rates

07:31 Federal Reserve policy and market normalization

09:25 Long-term vs short-term rates outlook

11:25 Housing market forecast

13:22 Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac conservatorship discussion

17:16 GSE stock trading outlook

19:11 Fed rate cut implications for market narrative

21:49 Recession and credit market concerns

23:17 Inflation discussion and Bitcoin indicator

25:49 Gold policy recommendations

27:07 Tariffs and trade policy analysis

29:28 Department of Government Efficiency outlook

31:35 Government headcount reduction impact

34:44 Closing thoughts on Treasury markets

Veteran journalist and bestselling author Charlie Gasparino, Fox Business Senior Correspondent and New York Post columnist, joins Julia La Roche in-studio to discuss his newest book, "Go Woke, Go Broke."

✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. https://public.com/julia ✨

Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US-listed, registered securities, options and bonds in a self-directed account are offered by Public Investing, Inc., member FINRA & SIPC. Public Investing offers a High-Yield Cash Account where funds from this account are automatically deposited into partner banks where they earn interest and are eligible for FDIC insurance; Public Investing is not a bank. Treasury accounts offering 6 months T-Bills are offered by Jiko Securities, Inc.,member FINRA & SIPC. Securities in your account are protected up to $500,000. For details: www.sipc.org. Banking services and the Bank Accounts are provided by Jiko Bank, a division of Mid- Central National Bank. For U.S. Investments in T-bills: Not FDIC Insured; No Bank Guarantee; May Lose Value. Treasuries risk disclosures, see https://jiko.io/docs/treasuries_risk_disclosure.pdf. See public.com/#disclosures-main 

A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC and includes 10 investment-grade and high-yield bonds. As of [11/08/24], the average, annualized yield to worst (YTW) across all ten bonds is greater than 6%. A bond’s YTW is not “locked in” until the bond is purchased and is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTW of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity or if the issuer defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, there is no way to know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or by how much they will decline. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. All investing involves risk. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Visit public.com/bond-account to learn more

Book: https://www.amazon.com/Go-Woke-Broke-Radicalization-Corporate/dp/1546007415 Timestamps:

0:00 Welcome Charlie Gasparino 00:56 2024 election post-mortem 05:02 'Woke doesn't sell' 11:16 Writing 'Go Woke, Go Broke' 14:00 Progressivism in the workplace 28:00 Media 37:00 Nail in the coffin of woke 29:50 Bud Light 43:55 A repudiation of woke

Investment banker and author Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors, who is also the author of The Institutional Risk Analyst, returns to the show for episode 208 to discuss the economy, markets, and the 2024 presidential election.

✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.9% yield: https://public.com/julia ✨

Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only.  

*A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.9% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 8/23/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at https://public.com/disclosures/bond-account.

Links:    

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    

Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/    

The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/   

Stanley Middleman book: https://www.amazon.com/Seeing-Around-Corners-Achieving-Business/dp/B0D5PTSJVC/  

Timestamps:

00:00 Intro and welcome back Chris Whalen

00:56 Big picture, overview of interest rates and Fed policy

02:57 Analysis of Treasury bond market dynamics

04:11 Long-term outlook for bonds and market structure

06:01 Discussion of fiscal policy and government spending

09:00 Critique of government spending efficiency

11:24 Commentary on government sector competency

13:21 Election outlook and demographic shifts

16:56 Analysis of Bank of America and banking sector

19:16 Discussion of stock selection in current market

22:42 Investment strategy in uncertain times

24:59 Analysis of hydrogen and energy sector outlook

26:02 Key market risk: potential for higher long-term rates

28:05 Closing thoughts and upcoming conference call